Buyers haven't had this much power since the post-recession housing crash

There were 62.6% more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market in September 2026. That's the biggest gap in Redfin's records dating back to 2013, and the fourth record-breaking month in a row.

Homebuyers have more negotiating power than they've had since the housing market crashed in the aftermath of the Great Recession.

The Numbers Behind the Shift

Redfin defines a buyer's market as one where sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%. By September, sellers outpaced buyers by 62.6% nationally, up from 56.9% in August. The gap has widened every single month since spring.

41 of the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas are now buyer's markets, the most in Redfin's records. Miami, Nashville, and Houston are leading the extreme end of the surplus. The Sun Belt, which drove the frenzied seller's market of 2021 through 2023, is now driving the extreme buyer's market nationwide.

Only 5 markets remain seller's markets: San Francisco and a handful of Northeast cities. Everywhere else, sellers are competing for a shrinking pool of buyers.

And this week, Redfin also reported that the median U.S. asking price fell 0.3% year over year in October, the first asking price decline since March 2026.

Why So Many Sellers Now

The number of active buyers in the market dipped to its lowest level in records going back to 2013, while the number of sellers rose to its highest level since 2020.

Many sellers held back for years waiting for mortgage rates to drop or buyer demand to rebound. After sitting on the sidelines through 2022 and 2023, a large number of them listed despite rates staying elevated. Active listings climbed to their highest level since 2020 at the same time buyer activity hit its lowest point in Redfin's dataset.

The result is a widening gap between supply and demand that created the seller surplus the data is showing now.

What This Means for Buyers

For those financially ready to buy, this is the most favorable environment for buyers in over a decade.

When sellers outnumber buyers by this margin, buyers have real options. And options create leverage. Practically, that means buyers can ask for price reductions without losing the deal, request seller-paid closing costs or mortgage rate buydowns, include inspection contingencies without worrying about competing offers waiving them, and take more time to decide without feeling rushed.

The important caveat: affordability is still a genuine barrier for many people. Rates have not dropped to pre-2022 levels, and home prices, even with modest asking price declines, are still significantly higher than five years ago. The buyer's market data reflects leverage for people who can get to the closing table, not easier entry for everyone.

For pre-approved buyers who have been waiting for a sign that the timing is better than it was a year ago, this data is that sign.

What This Means for Sellers

Sellers need to hear this clearly: pricing strategy matters more right now than at any point since the pandemic era ended.

With 41 out of 50 major metros in buyer's market territory, a home priced even slightly above current market value will sit. And the longer a listing sits, the more buyers assume something is wrong with the property.

The homes that are moving in this environment share a few things in common. They are priced accurately from day one. They show well. And the sellers are willing to negotiate on terms, even when they want to hold firm on price.

Getting a fresh comparative market analysis from an agent who has looked at actual closed sales from the past 60 days, not six months ago, is more critical than it has been in years. The market has moved fast. Stale comps will get a stale listing.

What It Means for Homeowners Who Are Not Moving

Even with no plans to sell, this market shift matters.

A home's value is tied to what buyers in that specific market are willing to pay. In a buyer's market with falling asking prices, appreciation slows or stalls. Equity built over the past few years does not disappear overnight, but the pace of gains has cooled significantly.

Now is a smart time to get a current market value estimate, not to sell, but to understand where things actually stand. That number has real implications for renovation decisions, refinancing conversations, and any financial planning happening in the next 12 months.

What to Do Next

• **Buying: **Get a pre-approval current and be ready to move when the right home appears. The dynamics favor buyers in most markets right now, but affordability is still a real ceiling. Know the numbers before touring.
• **Selling: **Pull fresh comps from the past 60 days with an agent who knows the specific neighborhood. Pricing from a year ago will cost time and positioning.
• **Staying put: **Run a current home value estimate to understand where equity stands. Knowing that number is valuable even without plans to sell.
• **Agents: **Buyer clients have negotiating power they have not had since the post-recession crash. Help them use it thoughtfully, with well-structured offers that show seriousness.

The market has shifted more than most people realize. The September 2026 data is the clearest signal yet. The next move just got a little easier to make, or at least a lot more informed.

The Zoodealio Home Report tracks a home's value in real time, delivered straight to the inbox twice a month. Get yours here.