Home Sales Are Ticking Up. Here's What That Means for You
Something interesting happened in the housing market this month. Weekly data showed a small uptick in activity — pending home sales edged up 0.4% week over week in early August, and mortgage-purchase applications jumped 3%. But zoom out to the monthly picture, and the story gets more complicated.
NAR's [Pending Home Sales report released August 18](https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/NAR-Pending-Home-Sales-Report-Shows-2-3-Decrease-in-July) tells a different story for July as a whole: contract signings fell 2.3% from June and 2.2% from a year ago. That's the lowest level since January 2026. Every major region declined month over month, with the West taking the biggest hit at -4.7%.
So which version is the real story? Both are.
## What the Data Actually Shows
The weekly Redfin data ([August 13 report](https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-flicker-of-life-august/)) captured a real moment — buyers responded when rates briefly dipped. Purchase applications climbed 3% in a single week, and new listings jumped 1.7%, the biggest weekly gain in five months. The median sale price held at $408,776, up 2.2% year over year.
But the broader July numbers from NAR show that high rates through most of the summer kept overall contract activity suppressed. As NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun put it: "The highest mortgage rates of the year hit right in the middle of summer, and that's pulling back contract signings."
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.67% as of August 13, per [Freddie Mac](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms). That's slightly below the prior week's 6.69%, but still near the year's highs.
Here's what makes this data set genuinely interesting: pending contracts are currently 30% below their pre-pandemic 2019 levels, while payroll employment is 5% above where it was back then. That gap represents real pent-up demand — people who want to buy but haven't been able to make the math work at current rates and prices.
## If You Own a Home Right Now
Home values are still climbing. NAR's data shows prices rose in 80% of metro areas in Q2 2026, and the national median hit record highs. That equity is real, and worth tracking even if a move isn't on the horizon.
For homeowners locked into rates in the 3s or 4s, selling still feels like a financial tradeoff. That hesitation is one of the biggest reasons inventory hasn't fully recovered. But if life circumstances are pushing toward a move — space, schools, a job change, family — the market is navigable for strategic sellers.
A fresh valuation is worth getting. Markets shift neighborhood by neighborhood. Knowing the actual number gives real options and takes some of the guesswork out of any future decision.
## If You're Thinking About Selling
Here's a number worth knowing: 24.1% of homes are still selling above list price. Those sellers priced accurately from day one and let the market come to them.
With inventory up 3.2% year over year (per Realtor.com) and buyers doing more comparison shopping than they have in years, overpricing is the fastest way to sit on the market and lose leverage. Buyers right now are patient, informed, and running the numbers before making offers.
Sellers planning to list this fall should start getting ready now. Repairs, curb appeal, decluttering — the homes that hit September clean and well-prepped will stand out when it counts. Fall historically brings more serious buyers back to the market.
## If You're Trying to Buy
The buyer environment right now has real advantages that didn't exist two or three years ago. Nearly 1 in 5 homes (18.9%) had price drops in June. Bidding wars are rare. Sellers are negotiating on concessions, repairs, and closing costs.
The fact that mortgage applications ticked up recently suggests other buyers are starting to move. Waiting for a dramatic rate drop may not be the best strategy — Zillow projects rates staying elevated through the second half of 2026, and every month on the sideline is another month of equity not being built.
Getting pre-approved, knowing the budget, and looking seriously puts buyers in position to act when the right home shows up. The ones who are ready will have a real edge.
## What to Do Next
- **Know your home's current value.** Pull a fresh estimate or talk to a local agent. Values shift at the neighborhood level, not just nationally. Knowing the actual number opens up real options.
- **Buying? Get pre-approved now.** Rates are relatively stable, and knowing purchasing power takes the guesswork out of the search.
- **Selling? Start prepping for fall.** September and October bring more serious buyer activity. Use August to get the home showing-ready before listing season kicks in.
- **Track the pent-up demand story.** With pending contracts 30% below 2019 levels and employment 5% above, there's a wave of future buyers waiting for conditions to improve. When rates move, activity could pick up fast.
The housing market this summer is a mixed bag of weekly signals and monthly trends. The small upticks are real, and so are the broader headwinds. What matters most is knowing where things stand right now and making decisions based on actual data, not headlines.
---
*Your [Home Report](https://www.zoodealio.com) tracks your home's value, equity position, and local market shifts in real time, delivered to your inbox twice a month. If you're not using it yet, now's a great time to start.*