A CEO Called This the Worst Housing Market in Decades. The Data Says Otherwise.

RH CEO Gary Friedman recently called this "the most dire housing market in decades." The context: RH (formerly Restoration Hardware) [missed their earnings target by a wide margin](https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/26/04/51622570/rh-ceo-warns-of-most-dire-housing-market-as-mortgage-applications-tumble-on-rising-rates), coming in at $1.53 per share versus an expected $2.22. Revenue fell roughly $30 million short. He blamed tariffs, global conflict, and a frozen housing market.

It is a dramatic headline. But does it reflect what most homeowners are actually experiencing?

## Two Very Different Markets

RH sells $14,000 couches and $8,000 dining tables. Their customers are financing homes well above $1 million, and at mortgage rates above 6%, that buyer pool has pulled back significantly.

But the market where most Americans buy and sell homes, roughly $250,000 to $500,000, looks very different from what Friedman described. The data heading into spring 2026 paints a more balanced picture.

## What the Data Actually Shows

This is where it matters to look at numbers rather than headlines.

**Sales are growing, not shrinking.** Zillow's March 2026 market report, [released this week](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/Z/spring-housing-market-accelerates-despite-mortgage-rate-spike-zillow-xf8kcb49w20f.html), showed pending home sales rose 4.6% year over year. That is the strongest March since the pandemic boom ended. A total of 300,398 homes went under contract, and homes took a median of just 19 days to go pending.

**Inventory is rising in a healthy way.** According to [Redfin](https://www.redfin.com/us-housing-market), there were over 1.73 million homes for sale nationally as of February 2026. [Eleven states](https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/state-inventory-update-housing-market-april-2026) now have more active inventory than pre-pandemic 2019 levels, including Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Texas, and Utah. More inventory means more choices for buyers and fewer bidding wars.

**Mortgage rates are trending down from their recent peak.** Rates hit 6.46% at the end of March, a seven-month high. But as of this week, the average 30-year fixed rate has dropped to [approximately 6.20%](https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/mortgages/article/mortgage-refinance-rates-today-tuesday-april-7-2026-100000802.html) according to Zillow, down more than a quarter point from the recent high. [CBS News reports the average at 6.41%](http://www.cbsnews.com/news/mortgage-interest-rates-april-7-2026/) depending on the tracker. Either way, the recent trend has been downward.

**Home prices remain stable.** The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index showed home prices [rose 0.9% year over year](https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/u-s-home-prices-continue-to-flatten-in-2026) through January 2026. That is not explosive growth, but it is not a decline. For homeowners with equity, values are holding.

## Why This Matters for You

A headline about the "most dire housing market in decades" can feel alarming. But consider the source: a luxury retail CEO explaining a significant earnings miss to shareholders. His customers represent a narrow slice of the overall market.

The broader picture shows real momentum heading into spring. Pending sales are up. Inventory is healthier than it has been in years. Rates are trending in the right direction. And home values in most markets continue to hold steady.

The housing market is not dire for homeowners. It is challenging for companies that depend on high transaction volumes and luxury spending. Those are very different situations.

## What to Do Next

If you have been waiting on the sidelines, take a closer look at what is actually happening in your area.

- **Check your local data.** National headlines do not always reflect your neighborhood. Look at what is selling near you, how fast, and at what price.

- **Talk to a local agent.** A good agent can show you real comps and market activity specific to your zip code.

- **Watch rates this week.** With geopolitical developments still in play, rates could continue moving lower. Most forecasters expect 30-year rates in the [5.9% to 6.3% range](https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/mortgage-rate-predictions-for-april-2026/) by mid-year.

- **Know your equity position.** If you have owned your home for more than a few years, you likely have more equity than you think. Understanding that number gives you options.

Spring 2026 may not look like the frenzied markets of a few years ago. But for most homeowners, the fundamentals remain solid, and the opportunities are real.